I do agree that from an accounting perspective, a lower gold price has the potential to reduce the NPV of the Co-O deposit (which is the only MML deposit I assign any value to), but that's just numbers in an accounting book and the market isn't waiting for the MML accountants to reprice the stock.
But you are right that there COULD be a write down at next year's annual report.
That said, there has also been a lot of drill results that have not yet been added to the R&R and more drilling planned for the second half.
So who know what will come of that or where the gold price will be in 6 months.
So I don't pay too much attention to what the accountants value their deposits at in any given annual report (in the long run they are always wrong).
Just as there were loads of deposits that accountants had NPVs of hundreds of millions at the peak in 2011 that are now worth nothing today, and I suspect there will also be deposits that are actually worth billions in the future that accountants are currently valuing at next to nothing on today's drill results, opex and gold figures.
And at the end of the day all gold miners are in the same boat when it comes to the gold price.
If MML delivers over the next 12 months then its current balance sheet put it in a better position than many gold miners to weather a lower gold price and be part of the next bull run in gold.
Personally my investment thesis is that the gold price is around its lower bound at these levels.
It looks like the low gold prices over the last 3 or 4 years has seen global gold production plateau this year (or even begin to fall). Supply falling is usually a good thing for prices.
Couple that with higher oil prices and rising interest rates I see it as more likely that gold prices will be higher in 12 months if demand for gold remains (which I suspect it will).
So from my perspective an investment in MML is really an investment in whether you think they're going to be able to debottleneck Co-O, get production up and get the AISC down into the US$800s then proceed to drill and expand the Co-O resource so that they participate in the next gold bull run.
If you believe that then on the current numbers MML is one of the best value gold miners producing over 100k oz irrespective of what the accountants want to value it on their books as and shareholders will price it accordingly.
MML Price at posting:
46.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held