I guess you may have misunderstood my opening post. The EV passenger vehicle forecasts are just that, EV passenger vehicles. In 2018, EV passenger vehicles accounted for 1/3rd of LCE demand. The other 2/3rds comes from 'other' been EV trucks, EV buses, other EVs like scooters, appliances such as your iphones and lithium batteries for the growing stationary household sector energy storage market.
Whilst passenger vehicle growth will grow significantly to 2025 using the forecasts in my opening post this category of 'other' can also grow strongly as well, meaning total demand is the addition of the two.
In terms of supply sources, yes there are brines and the existing hard rock producers who are expanding operations, but the key is supply into the growing lithium hydroxide market. Ultimately it is a question of whether brines and existing producers through their own growth plans will meet all the forecast LCE demand, and if so then there will be no scope for AVZ (or even a BGS) to enter the market by 2025. But I feel there still will be unmet demand but that needs to be quantified and if its there is, AVZ will be in the market by that date IMO.
I treated your graph as potential capacity coming onstream in the next few years - the yellow in your graph - and others have made other suggestions, not saying it is all there in 2019. Ultimately I do expect AVZ to come onstream so tehe question is all about whether it can happen before 2025. The deposit will be developed in due course, it is just a question of when. Obviously SP wise, the later the market sees AVZ entering the market the more unlikely the SP will rise in the short to medium term. It is up to AVZ to get teh project over the line.
I have found the thread interesting, and whilst the focus of my opening posts were around understanding lithium demand the focus should now move to supply gaps and where those gaps will be filled from (been either existing producers and/or combination of existing and new).
And a key is when the exponential growth in EV takeup occurs, because the 2025 figures just for passenger EV alone (and for avoidance of doubt these figures do not include anything in other) are estimated to grow by 9 million units above the 2 million units sold in 2018 (or essentially 11 million EV passenger vehicles are forecast to be sold in 2025 as per my earlier links before looking at other). These forecasts obviously are forecasts.
Personally, I do not believe the market has capacity to accommodate AVZ's entrance into the market in 2020 obviously, nor IMO in 2021, but 2022 to 2025 is a possibility depending on demand. Just to reinforce, if all the expansions in existing producers occur, and I mean occur rather than just be floated as ideas, meaning how realistic are those expansions based on the resources they actually have in the pits JORC based in the measured and indicated category, then the answer of potential entry is closer to 2025 than 2022.
But entry has a number of variables including the supply gap per se and demand growth per se which based on comments in this thread, where many focus on passenger vehicles, there is still a lot to learn and do here forecasting wise. Time will tell who is right.
Interesting time ahead.
All IMO IMO
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