Tokyo You keep comparing FMG to MGX , that's not a great...

Tokyo
You keep comparing FMG to MGX , that's not a great comparison IMHO , as FMG fell hard due to its high debt and the fact that if the IO price fell further it would be in trouble. Because of their production profile and leverage the 15-20 increase in IO price impacts valuation in a huge way for FMG. At present MGX value is in their cash not their cash flow which although positive , does not alter materially from a 10 dollar IO price increase
Remember also that MGX has been forgotten about, as is evident by the volume and lack of coverage. However the discount to core value is much more favourable in MGXs case as is the downside protection. So the fact that FMG went low was not only due to it being IO proxy, but also a survival issue. Comparing RIO SP and MGX you will find more correlation.

In the last two months I would imagine we have seen an increase in value by about 12m ( 8 m cash and 4 m reduction in rail liability ) and probably around 15 my quarter end

So as boring and frustrating as it is , the day MGX releases some news - it will be rerated while FMG will continue to trade in what the IO price did the night before IMO