My experiences with business turn-around in consumer staple firms, even for great companies, such as CCL, WOW, has been rough patches , despite a lot of investors quoting "consumer staple is a stable, non-cyclical, predictable business" and "how profit downgrade is only temporary, as their product and service are essential and basic needs."
I used to think that a consumer staple business with strong brands is "the wonderful business" and possibly the best investment out there. Coca Cola, McDonald and P&G epitomize what defines the wonderful business.
However, while brand value is a strong, non-imitable competitive advantage, quite a few industries in consumer staples are moving towards price-based competition, due to the economic uncertainty and post-financial crisis mindset, which influence consumer purchase decision and could last for a few years.
My take is that Woolworth and its brand/history/image are an important asset. But, its product and offering are quite similar to Coles and in the same category as Aldi.
These intangible assets can only create value, when Woolworth can at least match its competitor prices more closely. or offer differential products (difficult in the consumer staple sector)
My conclusion:
Grocery industry winning strategy : Great Brand + Differential Product + Competitive Price.
Aldi has Differential Product (private label) + Competitive Price
Coles has Great Brand (massive spending on advertising over the last few years) +Competitive Price
Woolworth only has Great Brand (long history, household name) but still needs at least one more element to compete, cheaper prices or more unique product offering.
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