fdken you had a very detailed analysis on the Pharma industry! thanks for that.
My option is very simple: below is the key points I see:
1. SIP has done much better that API in the past year, this is reflected in the SP (SIP has more than doubled and API has dropped more than half).
2. NTA of SIP today is 56.2c for SIP and 74c for API.
3. EPS of SIP is almost the same as API, if API is not more.
4. DIV(including franked) of API is almost 10% at 31c, make it a fairly high return stock.
5. 2012 outlook is improvement on 2011 profit, API expect a more than 5c earning per share, and today' price is 31c.
6. flooding and 50M writeoff... one-off items not to re-occur in 2012.
7. I knew little about the management's credibility of both companies, cannot say which is better.
The last but not the least reason: API is not highly traded stock as SIP, the top 7 shareholders have 66% of total shares in their hand.
Not saying it will not drop tomorrow (while a rise from 20.5c to 31c, I will not surprise if some profit taking happen), but comparing to the competitor' 70+plus cents price, I would be happy to hold this stock, I do not see a fundamental difference of business between the 2.
API Price at posting:
31.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held