Turnaround into a rising gold price!!!We can see that the company still has issues and quiet frankly once again it looks like staff shortages and not enough equipment on site point to NRW again!! It's no wonder they happy to extend credit for the next 12 months they just haven't delivered.Yes the geological assumptions made by the previous MD and team have proved to be overly optimistic and now current management trying to make the best fist of it.The bigger picture is all the capex has been spent and it seems the Plant and Mill are fantastic and can run well above design capacity. The mining has been the issue and not getting fresh ore to the plant and having to supplement tonnage with lower grade stock piles (70-30) in January. Once again new equipment is being delivered to site(new 100t excuvator to free up the 250t machine to get onto the major waste movements) and staffing levels back up to full strength for February.Financing is not an issue as its currently funded and operationally small profit or loss in last quarter.Where to from here.They have hired ANOTHER senior person from Evolution Mining ( Richard Hay) which I think is very positive as they will have seen all sorts of operations in the EVN portfolio, they wont have joined GCY unless they see the HUGE UPSIDE in getting the operations right.They see an operation that in 12 months time will have solved the current issues, they will be into the main part of the ore body and costs will start to fall as stripping ration falls dramatically. Costs should settle at about $1100. So at todays Gold price of approx A$ 1820. They should be starting to make $70m on a 2020 forecast, even if that is to high they will be still be making MORE than the Current Market Cap!!! Brokers estimates are $25-35m net profit , cashflow of $45-60m. 2020 so currently trading on 2x and 1.3 x cashflowDon’t think they industry players will not be looking!!! Why wouldn’t they, come in with cheap bid and then take the glory of the cash generation.!! Think any potential new CEO will be just waiting for the perfect moment to get onboard and get this thing motoring. What an opportunity for somebody.With the major shareholders Colonial and LIM as well as managements friends still supportive they should be able to see off the first bid.What other 100 000 producer has a market cap this low? think they all about 5x higher or more!!PATIENCE IS A VIRTUE
GCY Price at posting:
13.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held