Turkish tanks enter Syria

Originally posted by Osi ↑

A group called the Syrian National Resistance is now countering Turkish advances towards al Bab.

Who is the Syrian National Resistance? On the face of it they look and sound like the SDF and their formation was announced by PYD news channels about a month ago.

How do they differ from the SDF? Essentially they fight under the Assad Regime Flag.

What else is new? YPG and Assad Regime flags are flying together on some Aleppo buildings.

Why has the SDF aligned (to some extent) with the Regime? There are several likely answers. Underlining it all, the attempt by Turkey to annex parts of Northern Syria is central. Turkey pushed the Regime and the SDF into the current undeclared alliance.

What next? I fully expect ISIS to reach an accommodation with Turkish Islamist and Grey Wolf militias around al-Bab. Should the Syrian National Resistance (SNR) enter parts of al-Bab we will see whole districts of that city handed over to the Turkish forces without a fight. Knowing this, the SNR would sensibly aim to control areas to the South and South East of al-Bab before trying to enter al-Bab. That way they can join territory with the US supported SDF around Manbij ...... thus also cutting Turkish access to Raqqa and its surrounds.

Back to Aleppo: The manner in which local militias were expelled so quickly from North East Aleppo could point to Jaish al Thurwar IMHO. As posted previously this SDF group comprises of locals and "soldiers" with special forces experience. There have been suggestions of Spetznaz support in the past. That said, Putin, Obama and Trump all have plausible deniability in this mirky space. The US is officially fence sitting and Putin will simply tell Erdogan that he doesn't control Assad or Assad's militias.

Deep State Level: Regardless of what Assad is saying, a secular Federative model clearly aligns to the interests of the UN Security Council Members. A Turkey/Saudi inspired Al Qaeda styled mini-state does not. Further, I have always doubted that either Putin or China would pull the rug on a Communist Revolution in Northern Syria. On his home turf, Putin also needs to keep the Russian Communist Party on side. Mindsets don't change quickly.

cheers

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