The entitlement offer is underwritten so MOD will get the funding regardless of how many existing shareholders participate in the rights issue.
I too have to discount the possibility of MTR allowing their existing shares to be shorted in an effort to lower the SP so that they can buy on-market.
It is very simple, IMO:
(1) Copper price is falling back a bit
(2) Lack of newsflow from MOD re drilling
(3) MOD doesn't have a Li or Co deposit
(4) Existing shareholders may need funds to participate in the rights issue and thus sell for the arbitrage at 4.8c and above
(5) A lot of new shares will be created that may possibly end up on the market for a quick stag profit
(6) Points 4 and 5 mean that active buyers, like myself, see no need to step up and instead can patiently sit orders in the queue at 4.4 - 4.6c and allow the market to come to us.
Until either Cu starts materially rising again or MOD come out with some new, outstanding announcements then there is no reason to anticipate a massive share price spike.
Time will sort this out, IMO, and I am happy to have the chance to buy on market at these prices. The fact that MTR is adding to their position shows that they, as the ultimate insider, are very happy with progress and anticipate a bright future.
Cheers
John
MOD Price at posting:
4.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held