You are assuming a very large drop in price between VWAP and physical exit price which is only a few days after VWAP period. I agree there is a risk between VWAP and physical selling of HDF but I feel this can be managed using CFD's. I suggest your 6.5 cents is a bit extreme.
Also, there is a chance that TTXPA will be paid out with cash, perhaps not as likely as conversion but a reasonable chance all the same.
I will re-do my calculations based on 10 cents VWAP and 6.5 cents exit and let you know my findings tomorrow
thanks
HDF Price at posting:
30.8¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held