data interpretation is an art-form .... thats why data scientists are paid a lot .... and findings can be spun either way. Look at apple (prior to Steve jobs return, I'm pretty sure the charts at the time would indicate an investment in apple would be disastrous) and ENRON (which was rock solid, share price charting was cheerful and stratospheric and it was the investment fraternities darling - until it suddenly wasn't!). Fundamentals would have shown or Luck and Fraud - maybe - but history will judge.
I remember reading an old classic from 1954 when I was at school playfully titled "How to Lie With Statistics" (found a copy at
http://www.horace.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/How-to-Lie-With-Statistics-1954-Huff.pdf if you're curious) that shocked me at the time but turns out to be full of life lessons.
The crux of it is - DYOR !!! If you don't understand something, or you have another persons interpretation to confirm, get source data and confirm yourself. It's time intensive but actually a lot of fun in the end (as well as potentially rewarding).
Back to TTT
$2.46 on ASX and $2.47 on chi-x right now and creeping progressively upwards (go you good thing !!!!).
So if I wanted to put some basic linear spins on it today
- I could say "Holy Cow !!! Thats a $0.32 increase in less than a month (July 17th price $2.14) so it's up over 15% in half a month ! if this keeps up that will be 360% in twelve months and the price will be around $7.70 !!! Yayy !!!!"
or
- I could say "Tragic loss of market capital that still has not recovered since May (May 28th at $2.91) so it's down 15% ! If this keeps up we'll be at $1.78 by next May ! Woe is me !!!!"
or even
- I could say "Wow ! at $2.46 today that's over 1230% up since the IPO price of $0.20 less than a year ago. If it conservatively only manages half that growth (615%) over the next 12 months it would mean a share price around $15.12 by August 2019 !!! I must be an investment god !!!!"
which assertion is correct ? Well, technically all of them given the stated constraints and observation points. The points observed are verifiable, there's some easily checkable maths, I could draw straight lines and it would all seem legit even with the underlying leaps of faith !
So tailor your observations and chart segments to what you wish to portrait (just throw in some jargon like "upward breaking bayeasean pattern indicates....","non-deterministic eigenvalue inflection analysis shows ..... " or "as proven by the third integral hyperboloid discontinuity model matching the trading pattern" for credibility (don't look these up - I just made the terms up on the spot) maybe even show past data and company success/disaster stories that show where these "statistical techniques" worked well (and don't show the ones where it did not - or rubbish anyone who contradicts as being uneducated or misinformed) .
By now you've probably guessed I'm not a fan of charting in isolation as a means of predicting the future - but many do - and it's a free country - and my techniques for working it out have flaws too - so what the heck !
Back to reality ..... Titanium is a-spraying, interest is a-growing and buzz is a-plenty. I'm looking forward to some solid good news announcements soon given the investor update content.
Good Luck To All,
Shoe
(20min delay)
