siameseparrot, the figure of $10m is based on W. Hill expected year 1 production of 1m tonnes at a margin of $55 p/t (average sale price $140 p/t minus expected production and shipping costs $85p/t). Year 2 production expected to double. TRF's 20% share is pre-tax. These figures have been published by IFE several times and scrutinised. Most recent publication by Caesars Report adopts more conservative figures for both IO average price and production costs as follows: "Based on a $125/tonne price and a production cost of $90/tonne, Trafford’s 20% free carried interest should come in at $7M." - thta is yera 1 only. Just what part of the forecast do you not understand or not believe ? Simply saying that the share price does not reflect the forecast is not a justification for saying you do not accept the forecast figures. In fact, isn't it a reason to buy ?
TRF Price at posting:
33.0¢ Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
