Please can someone explain this to me.
VAH has reduced their CASK in Q1 2017 (even when exluding the effect of lower fuel cost) and has at the same time grown their pax numbers.
While I get that some of that has happened as a result of pax movements from VAH to Tigerair (which will have had an impact on average yields across the group) it strikes me that both QAN and VAH are constantly talking about soft demand.
Ignoring mining (charter) for a moment, business and leisure market segments don't look so bad when looking at these official BITRE stats: https://bitre.gov.au/statistics/aviation/air_fares.aspx
Survey MonthBusinessRestricted EconomyBest Discount
Oct 2015 89.7 79.2 62.1
Oct 2016 95.2 80.462.5
With both airlines hedged (90%) at fairly low fuel prices, they surely must earn more in 2017 compared to last year. This of course assumes that this October BITRE data as well as the yield trends published on their website are accurate.
Where is the catch? Is the BITRE data not correct or are both QAN and VAH on their way to much improved EBIT margins?
VAH Price at posting:
22.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held