IPH (ASX) TransTasman risks

Originally posted by Shiva100 ↑

You may be right. But I am simply reviewing the risks IPH mentioned in their prospectus and trying to get a handle on what they actually mean.

Clearly IPH is a better deal than XenithIP. And it may be good for another 6 months. But I am not going to buy. I wish you the best of luck.

There appears to be a lot downside for this year. The trans tasman thing, the ending of the founders escrow conditions and ePCT national phase. The ePCT thing will crash the share price and I am not confident that the market will be given fair warning.

80% of IPH revenue comes from Patents and about 70% of that relates to national phase patents. As I understand it ePCT (national phase) will shift the profits to the foreign (originating) attorney firms or for multinationals have patent departments avoid all of middleman filing costs. About 90% of patents filed in Australia come from foreign firms.

From the May 2015 report of the PCT working group PCT_WG_8_26

277. The Working Group noted that the International Bureau intended to prepare a first draft interface in the Demo ePCT environment, likely in autumn 2015, which would help to inform more concrete discussions with potential pilot Offices and users. It further noted the intention of the International Bureau to invite participation by pilot Offices and users, by way of a PCT Circular, in the near future.

Paragraph 257 and 258 suggest that there is a lot of support for the change from the Australian and New Zealand patent offices.

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Hi Shiva,
I think the first escrow expiry date is still 8 months away. Should it be an immediate concern?
I am not sure about the model of ePCT. Your point sounds somewhat reasonable to me. But I think ePCT has been existing for several years, it had not diluted IPH's revenue and earnings. On the contrary IPH prospers excellently in the past years and looking promising for this FY. However I am open minded and grateful if you can share more details on this ( how clients, law firms and states engage ePCT in terms of the procedure, obligation and interests).
Cheers

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(20min delay)
Last $5.08		Change -0.060(1.17%)		Mkt cap ! $1.578B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$5.17	$5.19	$5.08	$2.281M	446.3K

Hi Shiva, I think the first escrow expiry date is still 8 months...

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