Well after wiping the egg off my face after just rhetorically asking "how much REAL sovereign risk is in Venezuela?" in a recent post I agree that there probably wasn't much of the current 10c SP (now 9.2c !!) value tied up in Venezuela.
If you analyse the market cap @ 10c share = 27m
LL has an NPV of around $155m USD at current POG = nearly 6x the entire market cap of EVG
Venezuela - we can now write this off = 0c
Ecuador - owns the sites and farm in to 65%. New mining laws in Ecuador protect investment. Canadian consultancy think its a goer. Possible 1m oz. 100k pa production. Note - traditional mining operation. No mention of Albion here. Does this mean lower start up costs? - Value of Ecuador in current SP?
Ecuador to be bumped up the project list and to run one year behind LL.
Peru - I assume this was their most difficult project due to it being rated 4th amongst the projects. Possible that this will slot in one year behind Ecuador? Value of Peru in current SP?
I am sure that there are other projects being considered too.
With such a large holding from BJ, I guess we can all assume that he made a good early call on Venezuela and cut our losses.
I hope, that once-bitten-twice-shy applies here and BJ NEVER goes near Venezuela again.
I don't think we'll see the 8c mark, but possibly the blue-sky momentum may be a bit subdued for a little bit.
Cheers John
EVG Price at posting:
9.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
