trading analysis, page-7

Hi kymelle

There are a lot of question marks on the shareprice immediately after if goes ex-div. I personally couldn't give a rats arse what the price is so long as I have an understanding of what reasonable value is for the left overs.

Understanding this value should always be the driver of whether you buy sell or hold.

If EXS trades for 13c (which it effectively is right now) then would you be a buyer holder or seller? Trading below its cash backing, ignoring future cashflows (WD & royalties) and advanced exploration for a negative enterprise value!?!?

Try the same numbers at 25c, 35c, 45c eventually a number will sound big enough and you should sell.

Regardless of what JPM or ST do with their stake I see no downside risk as I think there is no chance the stock trades under 13c ex-div as I will be buying with my ears pinned back with my dividend money.

If JPM's stock is placed then a large portion of the overhang will evaporate in the blink of an eye.

When the div is announced I expect average daily vols to kick up substantially so any overhang will be absorbed anyway.

Ex-div there will be a period of softness as the buyers for the dividend only sell on the other side. Inevitably the patient will relieve the impatient of their stake. This softness should be filled with drilling news but there will be stock coming loose.

At this point EXS is an arbitrage play for me as I value the left overs higher than the sellers in the market who are selling for whatever reasons they are at this point. I am comfortable whether my exit is in 4 weeks or in 2yrs (hopefully the time it takes to advance CCP mkII to an interesting stage).