traded 10m , up 8%, page-3

Dont see how they could be termed "low Cost" when youve got the likes of avl producing at sub 50c mark.

But as you mentioned acturtle the Cu price is the kicker.With this only heading up as well as Mt Watson resource doing same,also with the high likelyhood of more to come,mrx may decide to go the 12000Tpa rather than 8,000/8500Tpa production for Cuthbert which would automatically raise the NPAT of $4.4M by 40% to $6.1M.Now this figure(by Baillieus) was based on a Cu price of US 88c/lb.Seeing that Cu price has moved 50% on this,I'll assume that NPAT will also move same to $9M approx if they go with the upper production limit of Cathode Cu.This would all blow out of the water by more than 100% again when White Range came online.

The only things that could bring a reality check to this would be China reducing demand for Cu or the big guys(BHP et al) coming to the party to start building inventory again.As the demand for Cu from China is being driven by domestic factors(Infrastructure plus higher standard of living etc)this wont be happening in the near future(say 2 years min) as China is so far behind the world in terms of Standard of infrastucture and living.They have a lot of catching up to do.Another related factor to watch is Chinas interest in long term mining projects.Its now a well known fact that they are starting to pour money into projects with mine lives of 8 years minimum which would tend to indicate just how long their economy will sustain their current insatiable demand for resources.

As far as the second factors concerned,with the big guys producing enough to rebuild inventory,this wont be happening quickly either as they would have to bring care and maintenaince projects back online as well as get other large scale projects producing(again 2 years min)

There are other numerous factors that one could add to the equation,the biggy being a drop back into recession by the US(if they arnt already there).However this current demand for Cu is being predominantly driven by the China factor as the US is battling to come out their current recessive condition. So I cant see much of a downside to the Cu price from the US as they are pretty much already at a low point.US housing will probably follow what our housing is currently undergoing with a slowish cooling and therefore not a quick drop in building product demand if at all.

All generalisations but its the Cu price that ultimately tells the story.

No,personally I dont think you'll see mrx ever in the lower quartile for production cost of Cu,especially when the average grade is a bit over 1g/T.But then it doesnt have to be with Cu at $2,750+/T.The company may well prove me wrong on this but history,as far as prices of production are concerned,never tend to be on the better end of the spectrum.But who will care if a little spec Aussie Cu company produces $10M profit/Yr.

d.