I remember their $50-70m guidance to be EBITDA rather than NPAT, EPS is calculated on NPAT. $80m NPAT therefore is very unlikely.
Zinc averaged US$0.99/lb or so in FY11 while the spot is currently US$0.93/lb after the past two days rises. The lows you mentioned occurred in the current FY12. I think zinc has fallen further rather than recovered, mainly due to European sentiment. That is why I have hopes of cost cutting...I did read that the new CEO will have some focus on cutting the operating cost of existing assets with target cuts of 20% until 2014, it sounds good to me.
I am mainly watching the margin between cost and spot as a simplistic measure of success. $0.72-0.75/lb 2012FY cost guidance and $0.93 current spot price leaves ~$0.20/lb margin, compared to ~$0.14/lb for the past 2 months.
Luckily the copper margin is more solid.
KZL Price at posting:
32.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
