I have come to the conclusion today's fall was due a miss in markets growth expectations...
on avg market was expected 30% NPATA growth ...
with several acquisitions occurring at different periods and their last earnings given in EBITDA format it is difficult to extrapolate their exact contribution in terms NPATA + organic growth... FY17 earnings report will provide a clearer pic.
my calcs give me 2.3% organic growth @ 20% and 6.5% @ 25% 10% @30%
NPATA 16 v 15 was 32% market expected the same for 17 v 16 however NLC inorganic is 5 months compared to 7 months in 16 ... even though fleet hire contribution is 11 months NLC has a larger impact ...
I believe 25% is the figure of growth providing both organic and inorganic contributions...
Management I believe have provided a lower end guidance as not to disappoint...
toot toot boarding call, page-143
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