Note that all of this is in my opinion. I have run some...

Note that all of this is in my opinion.

I have run some preliminary numbers, and based on high level assumptions for 2013 as follows:

- Eye corp sale no-longer proceeds;
- Television revenue falls to $700 million (3% down on 2012);
- capital expenditure suspended;
- programming costs remain consistent at $330 - $350 million;
- EBITDA forecast at circa $70 million; and
- Eye corp breakeven EBITDA

From this there is no need to undertake a capital raising and Ten still does breach covenants.

How is this done?

Well the one this that I have been amazed is that there has been all this media coverage regarding the repayment of the debt in March 2013 of $210.84 million. What the media has not covered is that TEN as suspended its dividend payments and unsurprisingly management will be in a position to draw down in its current facility to meet the funding gap.

However, in my assumptions:

- dividends will still be suspended until the 2014 financial year at which time it will pay 5 cents going forward over the medium term (I agree that theere would be an expectation of dividend growth);
- revenue growth of 5% (2014), 8% (2015), 11% (2016), 12% (2017). This provides an average growth of 6.6% over the next 5 years as per Ten's financial statement disclosure;
- programming increases evenly from $330 - $350 million (2014) to $550 million (2017);
- sale of Eyecorp in 2014 at cash of $75 million (after having a look at the last 2 years numbers if they are only going to show at EBITDA result of $2 - $5 million little wonder Champ pulled out, so I assumed that they eventually have to sell it for a significant discount to the current retracted offer);
- all other costs still controlled with employee costs growing at 5%pa and all other expenses at 2%pa;
- EBITDA of television forecast at $67 million (2014), $88 million (2015), $112 million (2016), $130 million (2017).


The one thing that I have noticed is that even though the share price is at an all time low since 1993 James Warburton has not bought any. Does he believe that it is going to get much cheaper?