Today's chart & trading, page-1773

So we all are waiting for the H1 report .   On surface this will be bad they lost a month.   The pain can be calculated.   It is good to do it before the event because knowing the data will change how we think of it.

Easiest is to say 1 month is a 17% loss.    This is a little unfair because of next was not fully implemented in  Q1, Q1  was 1579 Tons of NDPR   just 221 tons short of their production rate of   1800 ton / Q and they have plenty of Ce and La in inventory so production  does change those sales,   in Q1 or Q2.   In Q2 they shipped far more La and Ce they can make in a full Q. 

Next thing that can be determine is loss of revenue.   AL has told us they loss 400  ton to regulation.

They only made 1223.  So that would be less,  570 tons.  Either way unless NdPr changes price we know they receive about AUD 53. For ND Pr so Revenue loss is easy to calculate.  Earning a little harder and therefor will require a range of probably + or – 10%.

The most important number will be earnings.   There will be many that will say this does  not count, I will agree that Revenue and earnings as published in H! does not say much because of December.   They will be very important. The earnings will tell us how much they have to make in H2 to earn 2 ,4 , 8, 16 cents a share.    The EPS and revenue can be adjusted as shown above.    Q3 report will be out in about 2 months.  Q3 will show us Revenue for the lamp with fully implementing NEXT.   Cash flow with H1 report will give a very good indication of EPS for  all of FY 2019 with no REO price change.       

For last couple of years Q3 has been better than Q4  I will assume they will be about the same this year.    AL told us they held back some concentrate so they could start production before Jan 1 to get a jump on Q3 so I do expect Q3 to be a little better than Q4.   For all my calculation I will make them the same.  

 

Foster’s has been one of the more positive analyst for Lynas before people say this is going up you should read what they say.   They do say they think the stock price will go to $2.40 but then they say FY 2019 EPS will be 2.9 cents.   That would be a PE of   80!!!   Possible if revenue was doubling but the 2019 revenue will be 406 M vs 2018 374M a 6% growth factor including  the Next effort.    They spen more on next than revenue grew and profits went down.   Aus you say prices are not going down.  How do you explain this large drop in profits?   The fact revenue has not gone up proportional to  sales volume in tons?   

http://www.fostock.com.au/researchreports