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duker22250

128 Posts.

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05/01/16

21:36

Post #: 16734829
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Originally posted by Smugtown ↑

I jumped in at 19c a few months ago on the back of some key points:

- Revenue increased from $12m in FY14 to $39.5m in FY15.
- 2nd half of FY15 was the first time we saw positive EBITDA - > $2M
- Letter of intent signed with Thales (they focus on defence, aerospace, airlines security and safety, information technology etc) coupled with increasingly unstable world geopolitics
- Managements ability to deliver on FY15 targets
- Order book of $130m and 1st qtr revenue of $12.7m
- Gross margin of -15% in FY14 based on $12m rev v GM of 30% in FY15 based on $39.5m. The increase in revenue between FY14 and FY15 was done at 50% GM. Anticipated 20% revenue growth in FY16 (looks very conservative to me).. suggests between $10m - $13m EBITDA for FY16 with massive growth predictions
- Cheap and quality carbon fibre components (increasing opportunity)
- Space exploration/technology to be back on the agenda over the next few years

Since then we have had

- a perhaps somewhat controversial discounted CR @ 13c for us and 15c for Deakin
- The strategic (and IMO fantastic) appointment of James Douglas who gives us the dual advantage of being involved in carbon fibre and investment banking.
- Lockheed Martin awarded 32 more aircraft
- First delivery of JSF tails expected in Q4 of FY16
- Ability to plan and execute for growth and scale with QURE (only downside is may involve another CR in 9-12 months to deal with scale - however is scale contracts signed, then good result)
- Warn Ponds R&D facility fit out getting closer to completion
- Dent reduction from CR
- Increased broker coverage

This business has a market cap of $80m. If the FY16 EBITDA between $10m-$13m holds true, i's suggest we are looking very undervalued with our order book and best of breed technology and recent R&D centre.

I'd like to see 20c by mid-year and pushing 30c within a year. From there we may need an additional CR to cope with scale, which as i mentioned can only be a good thing, and if it can be done at a significant premium to this last CR, this is crucial. If done under 20c, then, ouch.

Conclusion - it is all moving forward and looking good...patience is the key. 3 year outlook... maybe 80c - $1.

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Would be happy to c ALT trading around these figures haha

ALT Price at posting: 0.6¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
3 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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To where from 15c, page-3

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