ALT 0.00% 0.5¢ analytica limited

I jumped in at 19c a few months ago on the back of some key...

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    I jumped in at 19c a few months ago on the back of some key points:

    - Revenue increased from $12m in FY14 to $39.5m in FY15.
    - 2nd half of FY15 was the first time we saw positive EBITDA - > $2M
    - Letter of intent signed with Thales (they focus on defence, aerospace, airlines security and safety, information technology etc) coupled with increasingly unstable world geopolitics
    - Managements ability to deliver on FY15 targets
    - Order book of $130m and 1st qtr revenue of $12.7m
    - Gross margin of -15% in FY14 based on $12m rev v GM of 30% in FY15 based on $39.5m. The increase in revenue between FY14 and FY15 was done at 50% GM. Anticipated 20% revenue growth in FY16 (looks very conservative to me).. suggests between $10m - $13m EBITDA for FY16 with massive growth predictions
    - Cheap and quality carbon fibre components (increasing opportunity)
    - Space exploration/technology to be back on the agenda over the next few years

    Since then we have had

    - a perhaps somewhat controversial discounted CR @ 13c for us and 15c for Deakin
    - The strategic (and IMO fantastic) appointment of James Douglas who gives us the dual advantage of being involved in carbon fibre and investment banking.
    - Lockheed Martin awarded 32 more aircraft
    - First delivery of JSF tails expected in Q4 of FY16
    - Ability to plan and execute for growth and scale with QURE (only downside is may involve another CR in 9-12 months to deal with scale - however is scale contracts signed, then good result)
    - Warn Ponds R&D facility fit out getting closer to completion
    - Dent reduction from CR
    - Increased broker coverage

    This business has a market cap of $80m. If the FY16 EBITDA between $10m-$13m holds true, i's suggest we are looking very undervalued with our order book and best of breed technology and recent R&D centre.

    I'd like to see 20c by mid-year and pushing 30c within a year. From there we may need an additional CR to cope with scale, which as i mentioned can only be a good thing, and if it can be done at a significant premium to this last CR, this is crucial. If done under 20c, then, ouch.

    Conclusion - it is all moving forward and looking good...patience is the key. 3 year outlook... maybe 80c - $1.
 
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