Hi Uni`
OK maybe my holding should be considered as small as I have only 748 000 shares.
* If selling thinking you'll get more for your money at a lower price...very risky...liquidating a large holding during weeks like these will undoubtedly push down price lower and then when you want to buy that same large amount of shares, what's likely to happen to the SP?
This tactic is only suitable for holders with smaller parcels.
Answer: If the decision is to sell one would sell off into good news in smaller parcels so as not to offset the sp negatively, and so achieve a higher average sale price.
*If you think EV's and Storage will progress very slowly going forward, despiteall available data and money commitments by various Governments and a largenumber of Multinationals pointing to a very strong uptrend...then better sell.Answer: EV and storage trend started in 2016/17 (Lithium) and (Vanadium) joining the fray as the preferred storage trend (2018), we all believe the EV and storage space is in a growth cycle, no dispute.
*If you think there is a risk of serious oversupply of Li and that thoseCompanies/PPL who have published those claims don't have ulteriormotives...then better sell...but if you think those rumours have donetheir job and have pushed the Li price and the SP of Li miners down farenough and has achieved a few things - 1.Has created very good entry points into the top 4 Li Producers -
2. Has put a very negative sentiment into the sector right before there will bean enormous increase in demand, but the investment into new projects hasall but dried up.
3. The scramble for quality Li concentrate will be fierce., as it will takesome time for new supply to reach the market.
4. Hat off to the Chinese - they are playing this with such skills that Ican't help but be very impressed.Answer: Market economics is determined by supply and demand, if supply is greater than demand = spot price falls, alternatively if demand is greater than supply = spot price rises.
I agree markets can be manipulated, but can only be manipulated for a specific period of time and value.
We have experienced the LIT ETF price drop by 35% during 2018, oversupply or manipulation? I disagree with your upramping idea that it is solely due to manipulation.
Amal is not vertically integrated to fully benefit from the total spectrum of EV/Storage markets at this stage so they have to rely on offtake agreements to supply to the producers of Lithium hydroxide...
As I mentioned in my initial post on this thread the criteria to buy or sell a companies stock is among others, solid fundamentals/ future trends and excellent management and best interests of its shareholders.
What I am saying is there are a lot of other miners within this free market that we could possibly consider relative to the criteria given. Our choices are not bound, miners have different characteristics to like or not.
*A40 has hit some small roadblocks and suddenly it's the end of the world,and all that has been achieved in such a short period of time is quicklyforgotten...few posters from other Li stocks and few that have sold and nowwant to get in cheaper are quick to blow the trumpet... the fact remainsA40 still with the lowest debt ratio and shortest timeline to strong ROIfor shareholders...before anyone jumps...I am assuming if all goes to planwithout any major problem...but don't forget, the same rule applies to theother 2 also.Answer: No, not the end of the world. We are simply trying to be objective and share the pro`s and con`s to make informed decisions. Upramping does not benefit anyone but rather blinds people to having a balanced view and jeopardizes their investments.
lets balance out your pro`s above with some reality for a more balanced view.
- high strip ratio impacting on production costs
- low production levels
- Expensive merger with negative impact to ineligible s/h...
- Plant delays and reconfiguration of plant processes
- Water issues further impacting on production
- Share price down 50% within a year
- Offtake agreement failed
- High interest on loan facility
- Unnecessary trading halts for lack of due diligence by BOD
- LOM not the biggest, but still more potential hopefully
- I could go on...
*There is a very high probability that a new offtake will be announcedshortly...why sell now at the bottom?Answer: we certainly hope so, but in the same breathe MC states there is fierce demand, but arrives with no new offtake agreement after +2 weeks in TH and being in production for 1 year already???
I am just considering my options to hold or sell.
*Some punters try to make you believe A40 offtake partner has same issues as AJMold offtake partner...realy?
complicity the opposite...the last announcement has proved that andboth parties seem to have a very good relationship and I would not be surprised if they will take extra concentrate once theirplant has reached capacity...not to mention the freezing of repayments...thatis such a positive...not one of the 'doomsdayers' cared to acknowledge it.Answer: great if it works out that way but upramping is not serving anyone.
Conclusion...beinga holder of a producing Li mine and with the constraints of a 50/50 ownershipstructure now almost gone (will be all gone after the 05.02.2019) and norestrictive points to address now whilst negotiating for the remainder of stage1&2 and possibly even stage 3 production.
Also with the lowest debt ratio compared to peers and the quickest pathwayto strong ROI...I know what I am going to do.Answer: Certainly hope so, but the upramping only helps to raise peoples expectations, what if...?
Time for some good news to start flowing! No more trading halts/ release sens in the morning if possible and look after your shareholders.
GLTAH
