To Have & Have Not

In light of so very little information given in this ann I will attempt {for what it's worth} to at least
arrive at a dead-line as to when clean up should be completed and production testing to begin.
Those reading it can take it or leave it, my analysis may be floored {so save your criticisms}. It is
simply my take on things, seeing Oilex can't or won't connect the dots for me.

I think it is agreed that the 1st 7 days of flow-back constituted the "optimal" performance of the
well in terms of recovery. No leaky frac tree, no loss of pressure, no blockages in well-bore etc
etc. In fact we recovered 40% of the ORIGINAL frac water, leaving a 60% water cut after 7 days.
From the quarterly issued on 24/7 we recovered 589 boo from 77H. Say 8 days then from 14/7
when milling operations were complete and we started flow-back. Allow 2 days for observation
of well and data and preparation of report. So about 75 bopd and 1250 barrels of water per day
{BOWPD} over the 1st 7 days. 40% frac water recovered {40% x 22k barrels = 8800 bow recovered}
1250 BOW recovered per day.

17/9 ann states that 75% of the ORIGINAL frac water injected had been recovered YET the
water cut still varied between 60-90%. Only 25% of the original frac water still in place yet
an average water cut of 75%. How many BOW are still in place then to arrive at a 75% water
cut? In effect, how many ADDITIONAL BOW were injected in order to flush the well? Go back
to the 1st 7 days. If 60% water cut remained after removing 8800 BOW then How Many barrels
of water were still in place to give a 75% water cut? At some stage in the 1st 7 days the water
cut was at 75%. 25% had only been recovered or 5500 barrels of the original 22K. 16 500 BOW
were still in place to therefore give a water cut of 75%.

17/9 ann states that 75% of ORIGINAL frac water had been recovered, leaving 5500 BOW still
in place. 16 500 BOW required to give 75% water cut. Therefore, by my reckoning 11000 BOW
were used to flush the well bore. They have to recover 90% of this in order for production testing
to begin. So, 15000 BOW to be recovered.

Now, would it be unreasonable to assume that the well could return to something close in terms
of recovery as it displayed over the 1st 7 days? If the flushing was successful, if all the other
work-overs have done the job, if the pressure has returned to 4300psi from the reported drop
of 2250-2500psi, if the addition of nitrogen gas lifting to improve water recovery is doing it's job,
then I say YES. We should be approaching the 1250 BOW recovered per day when the well was
flowing back "optimally". Let's call it 1000 BOW then. 15000 BOW should take 15 days if all is well.

This rate of recovery should have at least started on the 15/9. Allow 2 days to observe well and file
the update on 17/9. Completion should be 30/9.

The reason why they haven't given oil flows is obvious. 75 bopd at optimal flow when 40% of frac
water had been recovered. From 4/8-17/9 only another 35% had been recovered. That's 44 days
v 7 days, 40% v 35%. Let's say out of those 44 days, the well was completely shut in for 30 days
leaving 14 days of flow-back. It could obviously be more or less, who the hell knows? That leaves
14 days to retrieve 35% or 2.5% per day v 5.7% per day in the first 7 days. BOPD over this period
would have averaged around 30bopd or even less.

The lingering question remains ; We achieved 75bopd with a 60% water cut. How many bopd
with a 10% water cut? Is there more oil behind the "wall of water" still in the well? 30/9 should be
a reasonable deadline if my assumptions are correct. Can one still speculate as I have previously
that we may be looking at 200 bopd and 1.6mmscfgd with a 10% water cut? Who Knows? But
I ain't hangin' around too much longer after 30/9 to find out!!

GLTAH