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I had unfortunately succumbed to the perhaps naive optimism that...

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18/12/18

11:31

Post #: 36892051
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Originally posted by PeterRG: ↑

Folks

Have the Houthis and the Coalition really come to an agreement in Sweden ????

Listed below I have tabled key points in relation to the results from of talks in Sweden between the Houthis and the Coalition ...

Key points :
An agreement has been struck between the Houthis and the Coalition in which :
Yemen’s warring parties have agreed to an immediate ceasefire in the Red Sea port of Hodeidah.
Ceasefires have also been agreed at two other ports, namely; Salif and Ras Isa.
Ras Isa is where the export oil lifting and shipping facilities are located and under pre-war conditions it is where our oil from Damis S1 was piped to ...
The agreement included the future deployment of UN-supervised neutral forces and the establishment of humanitarian corridors.
Troops from both sides (Houthi and Coalition) will withdraw from the entire Hodeidah area within a maximum of 21 days (approximately by 4th January 2019) in a process to be overseen by a UN-chaired committee.
Troops from both sides would withdraw from Hodeidah port within days (apparently this is by Tuesday this week 18th Dec 2018) and from the wider Hodeidah city area in a second phase (up to 21 days time).
The UN will prepare a draft resolution designed to monitor and verify the troop withdrawal agreements.
The UN would play a key role when the troops withdrew.
The UN will take up a monitoring and management role of the Hodeidah port.The income generated from the Hodeidah Port Activity will be deposited into the country’s central bank, which should eventually enable the payment of salaries to many public sector workers (both Houthi and Coalition groups).
It is anticipated that this would help improve the humanitarian flow of goods to the civilian population and their living conditions.
Other western powers will provide technology to monitor the redeployment of the (Houthi and Coalition) troops, with an agreement that policing in Hodeidah becomes the responsibility of “local security forces in accordance with Yemini law”.
The warring parties have also agreed on a mass prisoner swap (release of approximately 15,000 POW's) and the easing of the siege on the south-western city of Taiz.
Other Considerations of the Swedish Talks :
All "agreements" stemming from the Swedish talks, have been sealed with a "handshake" between the two (Houthi & Coalition) set of negotiators. There are no agreement signatures on any formal reference document.
Both sides (Houthis and Coalition) are suspicious that the other will not honour the agreements struck, and the UN has tried to draw up detailed implementation plans in an attempt to prevent "reneging" (going back on their word).
The Agreement for UN Control of the Hodeidah port raises questions about the capacity of the UN to administer Hodeidah port, including ensuring revenue from it is transferred to Yemen’s central bank. Fighting might continue for control of the port. At present the Houthis generate large swathes of revenue from the port for their own war effort income.
Despite the antagonism and brutality of the war, many of the talks in Sweden were conducted face to face. Pictures from inside the conference showed the two teams of negotiators smiling and shaking hands.( there is a saying ... keep your friends close and your enemies closer ...???? )
Assuming all goes well with the initial exit (by Houthis and Coalition forces) from Hodeidah and the successful application of other agreed measures (mentioned above), it is anticipated that a political government framework for Yemen will be discussed in another round of meetings, scheduled for late January 2019.
Based upon the above I am unsure as to the outcome of the Swedish talks ... there just seems to be too many "loose ends" ...
PeterRG

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I had unfortunately succumbed to the perhaps naive optimism that peace was more imminent than it may be... However, my sentiment remains that we are closer to peace than we have been before. The Houthis have their back against the wall now.

It appears the details of the agreement were intentionally vague, so as to promote agreement between the Houthis and Coalition, opposed to securing concrete details for implementation - which could be contentious.
PSA Price at posting: 11.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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