Thanks October.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/miners-eye-jakartas-planned-iron-ore-ban/story-fnciil7d-1226779228723
Extract
Stellar Resources (SRZ)
AT the recent International Tin Research Institute investment conference in London, all those involved came up with an annual average price estimate for tin of $US26,000 in 2014.
Given the price is about $US23,000 a tonne, having come up from $US19,000 a tonne in July, the average expectation for next year implies there is a bunch of analysts out expecting the price to spike sharply from where it is now, presumably on Indonesia ban fears, as well as the new regulations requiring all tin-ingot to be traded through a Jakarta exchange.
All that is good news for the Australian Securities Exchange-listed tin stocks, including today's interest, Stellar Resources. It owns the highest grade undeveloped tin deposit in Australia, the Heemskirk project near the historic mining town of Zeehan in northwest Tasmania.
Stellar has been angling to get into production by 2016 and is optimising the findings of a preliminary feasibility study, which found a $US114 million development producing
4327 tonnes of tin-in-concentrates annually would have a mine gate cost of $US14,389 a tonne of tin.
More to the point is that under base case assumptions -- mainly $US25,500 a tonne tin -- Heemskirk could generate a net present value of $61m or 27c a share, giving it an internal rate of return of 19 per cent across an initial mine life of seven years.
Assume a 10 per cent increase in the tin price, and the NPV takes off to $103m. So if tin performs as strongly as most suspect compared with its 2013 average, Stellar's share price performance in 2014 may just match its name.
It would be coming off a low base as the previous sale went through at all of 4.5c a share, valuing Stellar at $10.1m. It shouldn't be done, but it is worth noting that after its recent resource upgrade, the Heemskirk resource of 71,500 tonnes of contained tin has a value of $US1.6 billion -- if it were sitting in a warehouse, mind you.
--
"Assume a 10 per cent increase in the tin price, and the NPV takes off to $103m." Worth saying twice i think.
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