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Tin in the News
This week we include geographically diverse news on latest production and recent developments from Myanmar, Indonesia, Peru and Australia.We would like to draw our readers attention to our newest comprehensive report on the global tin industry outlook, the ITRI Tin Industry Review 2017, which is available immediately. Further details are available below and through this link. Tom Mulqueen - Manager, Markets |
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ITRI Tin Industry Review 2017 now available
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9 May: ITRI has published its latest authoritative report on the global tin market, titled the "ITRI Tin Industry Review 2017 – Navigating Global Uncertainty". This is the fifth edition of a series of major studies on the tin industry outlook published by ITRI since 2008. More information is available in the report brochure here.More than a decade on, the global economy remains trapped in the shadow of the 2008 global financial crisis. Weak economic growth has impacted living standards and fuelled a desire for change which has threatened the established economic order. As protectionist sentiment has increased amid a recovering but fragile global economy, the outlook for tin might seem more uncertain than ever. However, despite tin prices being badly hit by the wider commodity weakness of 2015, which saw the lowest prices since the recession, tin fundamentals remain strong. There remains a high probability of a tin supply shortage developing within the next five years, even if growth in usage is slow.The report details how the tin market is expected to remain in deficit for the beginning of the five-year outlook period, with a cumulative shortfall of 22,000 tonnes to 2019. This is based on slow consumption growth rates of less than 1% pa, optimistic assumptions about new mine start-ups and a recovery in secondary refined tin output. A shortage of tin should push up prices during the forecast period, but additional supply incentivised by this price increase is expected to result in a return to market surplus, which will see prices recede to more sustainable levels by 2021.The 124 page printed report and electronic PDF file is backed up by data tables in Excel and charts in pdf format as well as access to our in-house industry experts. All of the key questions which will determine the outlook for the industry are considered in depth and answered objectively.For more information, please contact [email protected]
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Renison expansions progress as Q1 output remains flat.
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8 May: In its latest quarterly report, Metals X reported Q1 tin-in-concentrate production from the Renison Mine in Tasmania remained broadly flat at 1,783 tonnes, up just 1% from the previous quarter. While production is currently steady, progress was reported on both the ore sorting and tailing reprocessing projects during the quarter.Mined ore grades remain stable at 1.28%, while tin recoveries continue to improve, rising to 75.7% in Q1 from 72.3% in Q4. All-in Costs rose by 2.7% to A$18,992 (~US$14,022), mainly due to an increase in sustaining capital following commencement of construction of a new tailings dam in February 2017.While the tonnage of ore mined fell 5.8% to 186,230 tonnes compared to the previous quarter, this was a deliberate action to meet the capacity bottleneck of the current processing plant. A new A$13 M (US$9.6 M) ore sorting installation is currently in development which could increase the ore processing capacity by 50,000 tonnes each quarter by adding a pre-concentration stage to the existing processing flowsheet. This could increase tin production capacity by 15-20%, or up to 8,500 tonnes per year (total capacity). The project is currently being tendered with construction completion targeted by early 2018. The underground mine continues to be developed and significant ore stockpiles exist at the surface to provide the additional feed to meet this new design capacity.The Rentails tin tailing reprocessing project is also being actively explored, with an update to the 2009 feasibility completed during Q1 to update the capital and operating cost projections. It is expected that the full results of the update will be published in May. Final costings and financing options will be considered during the June quarter, with an investment decision possible in the coming months.
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Indonesian tin exports rise slightly in April
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5 May: Indonesian tin exports in April amounted to 6,378 tonnes, 3.8% high than in the previous month but down -7.7% according to preliminary figures released by the trade ministry today.The latest figures are based on pre-shipment checks made by surveying companies and include 182 tonnes of tin in solder and others forms, refined metal ingots represent 97% of the figure. The 6,196 tonnes of refined tin exports included in the total is broadly consistent with the April trading volume on the ICDX, through which all refined tin export sales must be conducted, of 6,230 tonnes.ITRI View: Monthly exports in 2017 continue to correlate quite well with changes in the average LME tin price. It is understood that a number of privately held tin smelters in the country are currently operating on tight margins and remain sensitive to tin price fluctuations. It is likely that exports will be maintained at a similar level in May, although local production is likely to be impacted in June due to the month of fasting in observance of Ramadan.
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Myanmar ore exports continue year-on-year decline
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27 April: Latest official China customs statistics reveal that March imports of tin ore and concentrate from Myanmar totalled 20,058 tonnes (gross weight), up 132% from February, but down 58% year-on-year.There has been a clear decline in shipments from Myanmar in the first quarter of 2017, with total ore volumes down 53% on the same period of 2016 to 60,059 tonnes. However, this year the average tin content of the ore and concentrates is higher because of technological improvements at the local processing plants. Despite this, our overall estimates of tin metal content in the imported ore and concentrate in Q1 2017, at between 12,000 and 14,000 tonnes, is still much lower than the 20,000 tonnes estimated for the same period of last year.ITRI View: The higher level of imports last year was partly because of local government and miner destocking in Wa, but the decline of imports in this year has also reflected the fact that concentrate output is falling. It has been reported that the ore stockpiles in Wa's Man Maw mining district have been significantly depleted. These stocks supported high concentrate production in the second half of 2016 and hence the level of ore and concentrate shipments is unlikely to be maintained this year if the underlying mine production can't be improved. In the absence of new resource discoveries, supply from Wa should remain at a relatively lower level as being impacted by the wet season from June to October.
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Peru tin output falls due to maintenance
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5 May: Minsur has released its Individual Q1 results for its Peruvian operations which reveal that refined tin production fell 18% year-on-year to 3,580 tonnes during the first quarter as a result of scheduled maintenance at the Pisco tin smelter in January.The maintenance at the smelter took place over a 23 day period and also resulted in a 25% increase in production cash costs to $10,284 due to lower production levels. Production at the San Rafael mine also registered a 6% fall in production in Q1 compared to the first three months of 2016, mainly as a result of a fall in average treated ore grade to 1.65% from 2.09% between the same two periods. The volume of ore treated was 117% higher than in Q1 2016 at 491,266 tonnes due to retreatment of low-grade ore fed to the pre-concentrate plant totalling 279,036 tonnes. The low-grade ore stockpile is expected to be depleted by the end of 2017.ITRI View: Despite the fall in production, Minsur remains on track to meet its official guidance of 16,500 to 17,500 tonnes of refined tin production for 2017. Production was unaffected by flooding affecting other Peruvian operations in Q1 and a recovery in output after maintenance is expected in Q2. While the long-term fall in tin grades and output from the San Rafael Mine remains a challenge for Minsur, the company has ramped up exploration and development projects, with a 48% increase in exploration and project expenses reported in Q1. These include several advanced exploration projects as well as the B2 tailings project.
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Join us for our 6th London Tin Seminar on 1 June
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We invite all our readers to join us for our sixth London tin seminar at One Great George Street in Westminster on 1 June. Further details can be found in the event flyer, available here.The seminar will focus on the tin market outlook with speakers from ITRI, Macquarie, LME, and ITRI's Explorers and Developers Group covering all the key price drivers, opportunities and initiatives in the tin market in 2017 and beyond. This event is supported by ITRI’s Explorers and Developers Group, whose members are working to develop a number of leading tin projects globally. More information on the Group and its current members can be found here. Attendance is free but spaces are limited so RSVP as soon as possible to [email protected] if you would like to attend.
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