ppI suggest AAZPB is now back on the way up. I bought more...

pp

I suggest AAZPB is now back on the way up. I bought more around 77.5. Assuming ALZ exchange in say Sep09 which is just a guess on my part (post refinancing), the annualised equivalent rate of return is 43% per annum with most of course a capital gain. This is very attractive for a company which has a 60% shareholder as strong as CapitaLand.

GNSPA is also very attractive: Rates of return based on 85.5 are as follows:
If Exchange date @ Oct08, rate of return = 142% per annum
If Exchange date @ Oct09, rate of return = 37% per annum
If Exchange date @ Jan11, rate of return = 23% per annum
My guess exchange is somewhere in 2009 and that GNSPA steps up. If they exchange in Oct08, that is a real bonus! Once credit crisis over, GNS will exchange as post Oct08, interest rate they pay on GNSPA is 9.8% fully franked or 12.8% grossed up which is expensive.

I think a virtually "risk free" trade is in TIMPB. Buy TIMPB and sell say 75% short CFD on TIM locks in a profit provided TIM>16 cents and TIM<1.70 in Sep09. Check the calculations. The peak equivalent annualised rate of return is actually 81% per annum at TIM share price = 50 cents in Sep09. (This is max conversion of 4 TIM per TIMPB);