This is the discussion we had with @goldbear77 on STO - to recap...

This is the discussion we had with @goldbear77 on STO - to recap I put foward the argument that the financial statements of the tight oil producers do not back their outlandish claims.
Like the new Saudi Arabia recently found in Texas - despite it being the most picked over oil acerage anywhere probably.
http://www.artberman.com/saudi-permian-a-race-to-the-bottom-for-tight-oil/
Furthermore long term U.S. tight oil cannot supply world demand growth at 1m bpd indefinitely.
However they could if financed restart uneconomic production and crash the market in the short term again.
AHS, can I convince you to change tack
The exact trajectory of the oil price recovery is unknown - I at least no longer want to predict, can we agree that offshore oil and gas is not dead but will at some point recover?
The question to answer then is not what the future holds but can MRM survive the present levels of extremely depressed activity? If the answer to this is yes and you can hold for 3-5 years then don't try to pick the bottom in the oil market - there are a lot of punters trying to do that with better tools at their disposal.
The trick to me is learning what you don't know, sticking to simple stuff and plodding through.