How do you value MRM, particularly at its current performance, on EBITDA or net earning?
Doesn't make sense.
If MRM were to go broke, its forecast earning would be zero or sub-zero. So why value based on that?
If its performance were to improve. i.e. it survive and still managed to get jobs... then its value must be at least what its assets were booked at, if not much higher.
So will it float or get flushed?
You said, and I agree, that it'd need some $150M to survive very comfortably. What are the options it could use to get that. Not necessarily cap raising.
For one, if it were to win a couple job it's bidding in, its operating cash flow etc. should see it getting into FY18 without much problem. Add to possibility of another $25M of the current boat sales and we're seeing the bright lights at end of the tunnel.
But assume none of that happen... does it really need all $150M at once? No.
Then it could simply, say, call up the two major shareholders from Singapore and Qatar [?]... and said, ey... how's it going. You know how we need some cash and if we were to do a cap raising the value of your holdings will be worth diddly since it'll be diluted a fair bit...
What say you buy some preference convertibles at 5%, 6%... 8%? Then convert it in two years time.
That would benefit those two a heck of a lot; benefit us shareholders with less dilution; and save the company.
but say that that's just rubbish and it needs $150M or $200M to bring the balance back... which at the moment isn't that high by any measure really. But if it were to raise that entire amount from issue share... how much would a company with 180M long term debt, good assets that's just waiting for the cycle to start firing again... what would that beworth with all the dilution. Still a heck higher than now on a per share basis.
MRM Price at posting:
27.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held