Time to breakout, page-1529

IP & VA are good mates and good operators, they have similar geo backgrounds and have found themselves as neighbouring MDs. High achievers associate with high achievers. They're exceptionally capable people each with their own strengths and weaknesses just like the two companies.

Both have shining futures and anyone who argues one will succeed while the other fails lacks the required understanding imo. Both are sitting on the highest grade deposit of the most in demand supermetal there is... in mining friendly W. A. Both will produce which essentially guarantees financial success. AVL are aiming higher, electrolyte is a massive value add but also a risk. One I don't know much about yet, which to me becomes a larger risk. Upside could well compensate though so I'll wait for details and price accordingly. TMT are just a stripped back version of AVL which is why I / we love them.

Don't think that AVL are sitting around twiddling their thumbs waiting for a PFS. Noone likes delays but it's an external input they clearly have little control over. Meanwhile everyone inside the company keeps pushing forward towards the next phase... construction.

What's to be done? Plenty. Studies - lots of studies, mets, applications, approvals, funding, offtake and supplier negotiations, workforce, power and infrastructure acquisition... just to scratch the surface. It's a vast web of work that both companies need to complete over the next 2 years before construction. It's not a straight line, all are interrelated and have complex nuances that very few are across.

The companies are at different stages of each section of work, AVL with an enormous headstart that a held up PFS input won't erode. TMT have a couple of extra studies to fund along the way. They know this and have set timelines accordingly. June '19 DFS and need to start construction by June '20 to meet 2021 production target in my estimation.

My timeline says AVL get there a few months earlier, it can't physically be more than this if TMT continue to execute well, it's not possible. Could easily be the other way around given how close they are together and with AVL's more complex goals... but it really doesn't make a scrap of difference.

Each will have their own offtakes, AVL to Winwin and Schmid, TMT to ??? Pricing will not be competitive. Production will not be competetive. IP & VA will still be mates. Some transport and logistics may well be shared as both have stated. Alexz and Prolifix will still be bickering, insecure pests. A few holders will have sold, taking their bag or two and occasionally checking the rear view mirror. A few more will hold their majority, sold a couple here and there and be sitting on a better future. One bloke will still be long V and accumulating, probably still rambling somewhere...