Hi Lalitha
Canadians are welcome here. You have a wonderful country! Much more sane than your Southern neighbours. omg. You guys should build a wall of your own, lol. A great big beautiful wall.....
Re Actinogen vs Imugene I'm not claiming expertise here, but I see it this way:
They are both high risk plays, with similar market cap - $61m AUD for ACW and $72m AUD for IMU . If they were not high risk, you would be paying at least 5 - 10 times more than the current SP. They both have huge
potential returns
. Cancer and Alzheimers are both high profile and growing problems. Effective treatments for Alzheimers really don't exist at all. Things look better in cancer research and treatment, but a real new breakthrough in Immuno-oncology would still produce massive returns.
So the question is really - which is the least risky of the two?
At that point you have to look at the research behind each company. ACW is much simpler than Imugene - they have just one shot in the locker - Xanamem. Either it works (bonanza) or it fails - (wipeout). Actually that's a bit simplistic. Xanamem aims to reduce Cortisol production in the brain - on the hypothesis (far from proven) that excess cortisol in the brain is causing Alzheimers. My concern about that is the hypothesis itself. There certainly seems to be an
association between excess cortisol and Alzheimers - but that doesn't mean it's a case of cause (Cortisol) and effect (Alzheimers). It's like the debate over Amyloid Plaque. People with Alzheimers have lots of Amyloid Plaque in the brain - but is that the cause of the Alzheimers, or just a symptom? One very possible outcome is that Xanamem successfully reduces Cortisol, but fails to reduce the symptoms of Alzheimers. ie they succeed in what they are trying - but they fail in curing the disease. If excess cortisol is just being produced as a
consequence of Alzheimers, and is not the
cause, then reducing cortisol will be a waste of time.
Don't get me wrong - I hope it works! It's just that it seems a long and lonely shot to me.
By contrast, IMU has several exciting drug candidates so it isn't a one trick pony. Also the lead candidates - Her-Vaxx and Key-Vaxx - target mechanisms in the body which have already been demonstrated to be very effective in cancer treatment. They both show significant promise of replicating what existing multi-billion dollar sale drugs achieve, but doing it better, by teaching the body how to produce the correct immune response. There is also very good evidence now that the side effects are minimal or non-existent, which puts them well ahead of the mono-clonal antibody treatments they might replace.
Because they target mechanisms of action which are known to be effective in reducing the disease, I see the IMU research as far lower risk than the ACW research. Also - if you are looking at a longer term hold - the underlying Mimotope technology licensed to Imugene gives them the very real prospect of producing an ongoing pipeline of exciting and effective drug candidates into the future. They have one lined up already, but it has been overshadowed by the PD1 candidate they have obtained by buying Prof Kaumaya's work.
Add to that a truly world class Scientific and Management team, with outstanding networks, and Imugene looks remarkably good for what is still a small biotech with a very modest market cap. It's still relatively high risk - but my assessment is that the risk is far lower than most people realise. To answer your question the truth is that I don't think "the ASX market likes this" very much at all really! If it were otherwise, Imugene's SP would be back up over 4 cents and maybe much more. But I don't think Imugene is hated, either - it's just not well understood by most.
Of course, like any small biotech, the SP will be volatile and will bounce up and down on the latest news and general market sentiment. That doesn't bother me as a long term holder, and some here make it a virtue by very successfully trading around the volatility and making handy short term profits. Good luck to them too. I wish I was that smart!!! lol.
Not to be taken as advice or a recommendation - merely my opinion. Good luck with whatever you do, Lalitha!
Best wishes
Dave
(20min delay)
