I think the Lind facility is obviously weighing down on the...

I think the Lind facility is obviously weighing down on the shares. There is a big difference between semi regular CR's and locking in institutionalised dilution each month. I think it's probable that Lind is less dilutionary than normal CR's as you'd probably have to offer more than a 9% discount to retail or SI's but it's probably the full schedule of the facility that scares people. With semi regular CR's it seems a bit random. There is always the promise of something good coming along and staving the next one off for a while. With Lind it's all laid out bare in black and white and you can see the full dilution over the next couple of years.
It's easy for a 2c share to go down 0.5-0.6 based on anticipating another several hundred million shares on issue.
It also says they can't find another FMG etc etc.

There would be a big fear that this is all about covering wages.

I think there is a realisation that there won't be any drilling this year (seemed pretty obvious to me but plenty of people late last year thought there might be) and if they're not lucky there won't be any seismic either.

The ownership of Derby is grinding on. Some here were telling everyone that as soon as it was granted the OXX money would be in the bank and everyone else kicked out with watertight legals. That is obviously not happening. From the last announcement BOPL isn't even at important meetings. There hasn't been any communication on where this is at. The issue is also one of funds for legals.

I also think there is a realisation that the other prospects aren't as big of a back up as previously thought, especially as they're being sold off.

Buru's issues are probably having a small effect as well although nothing like a couple of years ago.

The SP doesn't seem to have legs any more. A couple of years ago this could be ramped to the hills. Even I had higher expectations for the grant of Derby etc. It's like that final run to 3c took the last bit of energy out. Basically SH's are weary and are selling out earlier than they would have a year or two ago because they've been on the roundabout a few times now. It happens on any share after enough swings, it's not only the traders that start getting out on them, it's the LT holders as well. The guys who are still underwater will accept less and less each time. They wanted 3c, but now 1.8c is better than 1.1c.
It's also getting close to tax loss selling if it hasn't started already.

The biggest SP appreciation factor right now is Buru's Laurel testing and that hasn't been locked in. So more uncertainty there.

We don't know what's happening in the Laurel this year just yet, we don't know how Derby is going to be funded, we don't know who owns what of Derby and we don't know how much more dilution OBL is going to have to hold onto the chunk of Derby we don't know the size of.

I think it's pretty obvious there are a lot of things dragging the SP down. Uncertainty being a large one. But there are also some good things.

People don't like that the Lind facility is just paying director's wages, but really, besides seismic (and any legals) that's all they need right now. The company just needs to limp along this year. Paying director's wages and not much else is what's been happening for years. It's what happens on most small caps. It's keeping the business alive until significant corporate activity is landed. OBL isn't the only company that has gone a year without much happening. Without wages you don't have a company. It's really the size of the wages you can take issue with.

OBL's big play right now is Derby. There are some challenges that add uncertainty but with BRU testing possibly in July That could be a big short term boost once that is locked in.

Buru are no longer drilling in the Ungani Trend this year so some money that might have been tied up in conventional oil exploration on Buru's side now might flow into OBL's and REY's SP's given the leverage to the Laurel both companies have without the complicating factor of the conventional oil that might have weighed things in Buru's favour (and REY is going to try and get a drill up anyways).

I don't think OBL has lead anyone on talking about people waiting to farm out, it's just that those deals depended on OBL taking a majority of Derby. They can't "farm out to a major" with 25-50%. It's likely ownership will be sorted out soon. Hopefully before any testing that Buru does. I still don't see them coming away with a big stake but you'd hope ownership is sorted one way or the other in the next 3-4 months and no doubt there will be some sort of compromise which will probably be good for all concerned.

Next year Buru might be doing a Gogo test so OBL can piggy back on that too.

A director bought recently at a higher SP.

If Derby ownership is sorted out and Buru get approval to test the Laurel I think the 1.0-1.7c range will probably look smart once testing starts. That will be after tax loss sales and some renewed enthusiasm in the Canning. Things like dilution might not matter as much from a higher SP where less of it will happen and a lot of the uncertainty will be taken out of the SP. I'm sure there will still be issues, mostly to do with whatever OBL's funding commitments are but even without a drill in the ground there should be some optimism and OBL will just be along for the ride.

It's essentially a bet that the Laurel testing goes ahead as planned without too many nasty corporate surprises in terms of funding or ownership make up.