according to commsec data.. GCL should have a FY13 EPS of 29c.....

according to commsec data.. GCL should have a FY13 EPS of 29c.. lets discount this by 20% to give FY13 EPS 23.5c


current price: $3.70

CVR: $3 (in 18months time)
Yancoal: 70c

therefore, this would assume PE would be 3!

For extra margin of safety, lets drop EPS to 20c. Then assume a base case PE is 6 for this stock.

yancoal valuation: 20c x 6 = $1.20
add $3 CVR

total value: $4.20 (base case)

therefore, at least.. 13.5% (or 9% annualised) upside from here on worst case scenario.