this is good news, page-9

Hi Crackity

Thanks for asking but not that much insight here. Been pondering it this afternoon. Some good news but to be honest not as good as I would have liked, of course stating the obvious.
They have more gas so the 'discovery' is bigger. From 3614m to 3721m, 107m interval they have 40m of net gas. Then it would seem that from 3721 to TD 4019 an interval of 298m another 18m of net pay. I am disappointed that this is not bigger!
That is total of 58m pay over 405m.
Using Wilcox as a comparison I think that they had 141m over about the same interval without having the numbers at hand. They describe the pay as being in the Angel and Late Triassic. Just were they were at 4019m I am not sure, and they don't say, but reading between the lines, were they through the main plays? No mention of the GWC.
In all I tend to read this as not being as big as I had hoped. I had always said it was not if they found gas but 'how much' and was it 'commercial'. It is good that it is 'wet' as the condensate can be worth as much as the gas and would make a smaller field economic together with it's proximity to infrastructure as they say.
How big is it I have no idea. Comparisons with Wilcox are meaningless and there is no way that I can correlate it back to the RFS Report estimates, which had Best Estimate, Prospective Gas Resource of 1117BCF and 49mmbbls. I don't have anything knowledge as to what those estimates were based on. No idea where ironman100 gets his numbers from. I would not be using anything like the dollar values that he is for an in ground resource.
Would be great if it is deemed commercial. If not a bonanza then a least a win for OXX.
Hopefully some numbers leak out.
In the meantime roll on Matuku.