Yes this Great news - Condensate is a real money spinner - but...

Yes this Great news - Condensate is a real money spinner - but what is all this 58m worth?

Here is my attempt

Not a lot of info on the numbers out there yet but the Gas and Gross Rock Volume will depend on where they are in the section and areas of the top and bottom of the reservoirs – closer to top of the structure smaller volume than at the bottom of the structure.

So I’m going to quote a range of probabilities values roughly p90 and p10

My guesstimates for Gas are anywhere from 110BCF to 600BCF

Finally we have confirmation of Gas Condensate – The Gas samples taken in the reservoir have been analysed and confirms this. Gas condensate can be worth more than Oil so this is a very important announcement for the value of resourse. Using analogies from other close discoveries my guestimates are 3 MMBLS to 16 MMbls

110BCF – 600BCF @ 4$/thousand cubic feet equates to $440million to $2.4Billion
3 MMBBLS - 16 MMBLS of Gas condensate @ $100/barrel equates to $300Million to $1.6Biliion

OXX share for both gas and condensate 25% = $185million to $1000million
Like all good guestimate ranges the truth may lie somewhere in the middle.

My Guess is Santos @ Octanex will find another partner to further appraise and develop this resource to spread the risk and costs. Due of the closeness of infrastructure and development options these cost will be significantly reduced thus adding to value.

Matutku 66MMbls mean - @ $100 per barrel =6.6Billlion total – OXX share – 1485 Million

Of course I don’t take into account any development cost or increase in value of permits and multiple follow up prospects when and if a discovery is announced. Just what it is worth if it were already above ground and sold. Maybe others can have a go at in-ground value.

OXX will be tightly held now and rightly so – they have a resource now – liquid gold in the bank – with another great prospect to drill, investors can still buy at incredible value – as perceived risk reduces (such as the announcement today of more gas and the official confirmation of condensate) and future announcements of the development of Winchester continues the SP will continue rise.