I saw a couple of reports from Goldman Sacchs and Macquarie...

I saw a couple of reports from Goldman Sacchs and Macquarie rating STO shares. It seems there's still a fair amount of work to do to determine reserves but GS where rating Winchester/Bianchi discoveries at 29 cps for Santos (risked) and Mac specifying 24 cps risked and 69 cps unrisked.

24 cps is worth ~$230m to Santos based on MC of $14.3bn and a share price of $14.70. Assume 1/3 is for Winchester which has half the net gas play depth of Bianchi, say $77m. Santos has 3 time the stake of OXX so approx. risked for OXX is $26m giving so I'd expect a risked share price in the low thirties assuming a pre-discovery evaluation of 20 cps. Unrisked value would be approx. $75m for OXX or 52 cps. market seems a bit low but not too far off. I think the values are based on 680 bcf so may change when reserves are determined. The net gas play is lower than anticipated pre-drill but quality/condensate is very good so who knows. And something was mentioned about additional gas from the lower levels that may be available on production drilling.

Feel free to check the maths.

Good luck all.