I've just had a look at the MIA and I give this deal ZERO chance...

I've just had a look at the MIA and I give this deal ZERO chance of success.

If PGL's SP stays comfortably below $1.00 between now and the time of the PGL meeting this deal WILL BE VOTED DOWN by PGL shareholders (assuming they're rational).

In any case the buyback will be swamped with acceptances and with only 30% to be filled pro rata the size of the cash exit door will not be as wide as some PGL punters may think.

The only way for this deal to succeed is for the AVX SP to be comfortably above $0.105 at the time of the PGL shareholder meeting and considering that if the PGL vote is not in the affirmative AVX shareholders will be holding a piece of paper that is trading CUM massive share dilution. AVX would be either forced into an emergency RE-CAP or have a fall back position of a partnering deal with a 3rd party (in either event AVX shareholders will be rodgered).

AVX should've insisted on PGL committing to a 15% share placement upfront at $0.105 to get PGL shareholders half pregnant with the deal and buy them some more time from a cash perspective.

The trade here is to buy PGL and short AVX. If this deal is voted down by PGL shareholders the PGL board will have no alternative but to distribute ALL of the cash to its shareholders. PGL will be $500k lighter in the pocket from the break fee and also copping advisor and legal counsel costs.

The market is telling both PGL and AVX boards this eal is not going to get voted through.

cheers