On the other hand, if BOW went today they wouldn't get anywhere near 15c/GJ, since like you said the hype is gone.
At any rate, somewhere between the two seems reasonable to me. Perhaps 20-30c.
I don't actually like the 3P metric at all, these days. It was appropriate in the early days (up to about 2009) while still characterising the Qld plays because not enough appraisal had been done to firm up the 2P Reserves, so a lot of stuff would characterised as 3P that would eventually become 2P.
But these days we're down to the tight dregs, and stuff that is 3P is likely to stay 3P, which by definition means it's unlikely to be economic.
So we're valuing companies on their uneconomic resource, rather than the 2P. But for some reason you still hear the old $/GJ 3P metric bandied around in the industry.
WCL Price at posting:
28.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held