Things may cool a bit here, page-2

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68huey

112 Posts.

06/11/14

15:47

Post #: 14246770
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Originally posted by drachma ↑

A possible scenario.

It is likely that whilst discussions with the Spaniards et al, occur, the SP will cool a little. Also, I expect the proposed acquirers to issue negative press releases about negotiations, market conditions, contracts etc, in order to push the SP down. We've already seen this when concerns were raised about access to everything in the data room. I suspect the contract with the Commonwealth regarding management of refugees is highly confidential and restricted. I hope they don't play on this as it will be picked up by the media who would want to politicise the takeover.... I can see the headlines.. "Refugee contract with Govt going to foreign company" .... blah blah.

This is all fine because as I see it, it will be another 3 months until another offer from the proposed acquirer surfaces, which puts it in the mid reporting season where TSE will likely report stronger results, thus pushing up the SP. If the takeover falls over then the SP will recover anyway to about the $2 level if not more on the end of FY results themselves. End of FY 15 may see a return to a dividend.

Either way, if my hypothetical - speculative play materialises, I'll be in for another 3-4 months or 6-12 months. You must of course DYOR.

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I totally agree, even at the bandied around price of $2.05 is too cheap, if TSE do make $280Mil profit generally means they are buying TSE for 3.57 times EBITA seems cheap imo.... personally i believe a fair price is in the $3-$4 range and hope the takeover doesnt go through and TSE keep improving their bottom line and watch the share price take off once they return to dividend redistribution....

TSE Price at posting: $1.87 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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Things may cool a bit here, page-2

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