Things Hotting Up, page-41

Of course on Friday it emerged that the BPC "talks" look as if they have cratered and the shares fell 69%.....despite which the company still has a market value of £31mn (3x the "pre-talks" valuation). Against that comparison, GBP still looks a (very?) cheap way into some major play-opening prospects, especially with other companies starting Namibian drilling campaigns in the coming days. Perhaps the BPC "major" (Exxon, some speculate) has set its sights elsewhere?

I think a clean company sale could be on the cards if Gemsbok appeals (and it should, given the huge size of the structure), leaving the way open to a couple of majors to risk-share the project 60/40 (after the modest third-party carry) through 3D and drilling. What price? Perhaps 4x the current level? If other companies have drilling success in Namibia in the coming months, it could be even more? As others have pointed out, there is plenty of work to be done in analysis before drilling - but it is a good entry point now, because a major can control the whole project from the 3D onwards.

Bank Holiday in the UK on Monday, so liquidity may be even thinner than usual at present - and it must be pretty thin anyway, with only c.110mn shares in the free float.