BUD 0.00% 4.3¢ buddy technologies ltd

@Lazarus65 - yes 2 pithy quotes.  telling me something i coined...

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    @Lazarus65 - yes 2 pithy quotes.  telling me something i coined is fruitful work because i have to agree.  but i would point out im not rationalising - not in the self delusional aspect - because im not invested in the stock. im just objectively tracking how it goes from here vs my expectations. thats why im happily - relatively - out at 13.5c.  from what ive read im one of the few who net made money on this 6c-6c farrago.

    re math - mgt it read to me guided to partial revenues from june and sept qtr being booked on variable 1-6 months lags and created expectation good bulk of the remainder would land in dec qtr and rolling on.

    so  flat revenue for Ohm to me implies decent probability of negative new sales growth & negative recurring revenue (ie cancellations) - because you have a backlog of accruals that is being matched off against  (ie you are still booking income for clients who;ve now cancelled - so your future run rate is lower)

    they never have 'reported' to the traction.  they have occassionally picked select data points like churn rate to focus on in activity reports and webinars.

    that doesnt create any requirement for them to do so consistently  - ie there is no 'materiality' around those numbers - nor does it tell you if the comparisons are like for like.

    ie CEO said above 50% retention rate in Feb 18 webinar.  but is that off the entire group of clients sold - or a rolling sample group that drops out cessations?  if it was the lattter it was a useless data point for projecting 2018 cashflows.

    if retention rate was +50% during all of 2018 on total initial purchaser population then I would have thought revenues much stronger by now

    but whatever the case - you;re mistaken if you think company would be required under continuous disclosure to update you on falling retention rate

    the only continuous disclosure requirements they are required to meet are against forecasts still in effect, changes they could reasonably expect to have material effect on share price and 4c.

    and material changes is such a subjective term - its rarely enforced. 

    i do think there's a few heavy technically oversold jumps in the near future - insiders/market movers can use those to rightsize their positioning. tough to do from retail but technical indicators give you the chance




 
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