Industrial gas buyers are angrily warning of large-scale plant closures and job losses
They have renewed calls for the federal government to curb LNG exports from Queensland after
a warning that east coast gas prices are heading north whether import terminals are built or not.
"Get ready for mass job losses," Garbis Simonian, managing director of NSW gas user and wholesaler Weston Energy, said of prospects for gas prices to rise beyond the present level of about $10 a gigajoule, which is already straining many buyers.
"Ten is the absolute limit. Above that it's just not workable, people will just turn it off and close their plants. The Australian government will have to step in and exercise
the LNG export controls."
Chemical industry spokeswoman Samantha Read described the forecasts for higher prices by top-ranked energy analyst Mark Samter as "very concerning".
"Ten-dollar gas can't be the new baseline if we want to keep industrial manufacturing on the east coast," Ms Read said.
"We certainly don't oppose the [proposed LNG import] terminals – they are bringing supply into the market – but that supply needs to be at a price that meets the needs of end users."
Mr Samter, now at independent house MST Marquee, is anticipating that
the $10-a-gigajoule being quoted by some potential LNG importers into the southern states is the lowest prices will be and that tariffs will move higher even with import terminals, as Asian LNG markets tighten.
JPMorgan estimates Asian gas imported into Australia would cost $14.73 a gigajoule at present LNG spot prices, or $11.52/GJ for US gas. That compares with a $9.24/GJ average at the Wallumbilla gas hub in Queensland last month.
Mr Samter said
closures of some gas-based manufacturing plantsis "a highly unfortunate byproduct of where we've got to", with insufficient development of gas resources to meet demand from the three large LNG export plants in Gladstone, as well as domestic consumption.
Minister differs The debate comes ahead of the next report on east coast gas from the competition watchdog, which is being handed to Treasurer Scott Morrison this week and is expected to be released publicly as early as next week.
Australian Competition and Consumer Commission chairman Rod Sims voiced hope that LNG imports would at least cap the price of east coast gas.
"They certainly can't do any harm, because if they go ahead and people buy the gas they are going to be people who can afford those prices and hopefully that diversion of gas can mean lower prices for others," Mr Sims said.
"There are a lot of companies out there that have found the sudden, massive increase in gas prices have really damaged their business model. Their prices have gone up two to three times in the best of worlds so they are in a very awful position, there's no doubt about that."
But federal Resources Minister Matt Canavan took issue with Mr Samter's view that the sanctioning of the three Queensland LNG export projects had effectively locked in international prices for east coast buyers.
Senator Canavan noted that the Queensland projects had provided almost 100 petajoules of gas into the local market over the past 12 months and said there could have been supply shortfalls had those ventures not been developed.
"Queensland coal seam gas has helped considerably to maintain supply in Australia, albeit at higher prices," he said.
Senator Canavan said the government's intervention had helped to lower gas prices and declined to comment about hypothetical higher gas prices in future, while acknowledging the difficulties caused by present prices.
"I accept that prices of $10 are a great threat to jobs and manufacturing; prices of $8 are also a threat to jobs and manufacturing," he said, underlining the need for state governments such as Victoria to lift restrictions on onshore gas.
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