I agree with some of your points there stretchie re: "some of the blue sky".....perhaps. But some of those assumptions are also driven by the expectation of an ever increasing shareholding from bpt by the requirement to fund ade going forward. Have you thought about the possibility of ade not requiring further funding from bpt after this latest round ? Again, I know it is an "if" but it is possible that bpt may not continue to ratchet up there ownership past this level.
All speculation at this point anyway but there is one thing I am very sure of and that is that the ade guys wouldn't go down the track of setting in concrete a structure that would allow only a 4-5 bagger off 9 cents as max upside. There are other things to consider here. I can see why people deduce this in the short term though.
All IMO of course
ADE Price at posting:
14.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held