I've been trying to put myself in MIN's shoes wrt to HXG and...

I've been trying to put myself in MIN's shoes wrt to HXG and where they might go from here. I believe they see HXG as a VERY compelling prospect and would not be surprised to see ongoing buying in the market post the latest $7m capital raising. How come?

MIN are prepared to effectively buy half of the McIntosh project for approx $148m. That is the estimate of the upfront capex in the PFS required to bring the McIntosh project to production. So, the logical conclusion is that they value HXG's half of McIntosh also at minimum of $148m.

Post the latest placement (36.8m shares at 19c) HXG will have 317m shares on issue. So MIN's base case valuation for HXG therefore must be $148m/317m or 47cps. However, HXG has cleverly kept the right to half of the McIntosh production and will market and sell based on the results of the pilot plant they will construct following the recent capital raising. I also believe that they will end up marketing MIN's half too. Why wouldn't MIN use HXG's developed expertise in adding value and selling into channels with superior margins (with HXG clipping the ticket in the process!)?

On top of this, HXG is genuinely excited about the prospects for Halls Creek (gold and base metals). Some of the raising will be used here.

So, in summary, HXG offers MIN the other half of the McIntosh project, developing expertise in downstream processing into superior margin products as well as an option on a gold/base metal play at Halls Creek.

If MIN did as suggested by alecfra put $2m into the placement that would represent 10.5m shares or about 3.3% of shares on issue. They could buy another 5.3m shares on market before they hit the 5% substantial share holders level or another 52.6m to get to 19.9%.

I believe, as we all do here probably, that MIN will view HXG here as the wrong price. I remain confident that there is significant upside from here but if the share price doesn't start to narrow the deep discount to value over the next 18 months, then MIN might just have a go at taking over the lot (which would be very unfortunate in my view).

As an aside, I see Tribeca maintained their relative exposure to HXG by buying a further 10.5m shares to take them to nearly 29m shares or 6.56%. That too is highly encouraging.

My thoughts only. DYOR