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322 Posts.
67
15/09/14
11:57
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Very Good GL I had a similar attempt with similar estimates. Breaking the annual estimates into quarterlies.
There are many assumptions, overhead, margin, shares on issue and the main assumption is PE. This is not research and please DYOR.
The anaylsis is based on the directors sales estimates and the company may well not do these numbers.
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Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
Column 6 |
Column 7 |
Column 8 |
Column 9 |
Column 10 |
Column 11 |
Column 12 |
0 |
TIS Sales Estimates Issued 03-2014 |
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M's |
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1 |
|
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
7 Yr Total |
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2 |
SM's Sales |
2.6 |
33.6 |
109.0 |
330.0 |
549.0 |
663.0 |
786.0 |
2,473.2 |
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3 |
QOQ Grwth |
|
53.0% |
27.7% |
33.7% |
5.1% |
4.7% |
4.2% |
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4 |
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5 |
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M's |
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6 |
Quarter Ended |
Sales |
Margin |
GP |
Qtr OH |
NPBT |
TAX |
NPAT |
SHARES |
EPS PQ |
PE |
Implied SP |
7 |
Dec/14 |
2.6 |
75.0% |
1.95 |
2.50 |
- 0.55 |
- |
- 0.55 |
270 |
-$ 0.0020 |
21 |
Speculative |
8 |
Mar/15 |
4.0 |
75.0% |
2.98 |
5.00 |
- 2.02 |
- |
- 2.02 |
300 |
-$ 0.0067 |
21 |
Speculative |
9 |
Jun/15 |
6.1 |
75.0% |
4.56 |
5.00 |
- 0.44 |
- |
- 0.44 |
300 |
-$ 0.0015 |
21 |
Speculative |
10 |
Sep/15 |
9.3 |
75.0% |
6.98 |
5.00 |
1.98 |
- |
1.98 |
300 |
$ 0.0066 |
44 |
$1.16 |
11 |
Dec/15 |
14.2 |
75.0% |
10.68 |
5.00 |
5.68 |
- |
5.68 |
300 |
$ 0.0189 |
44 |
$3.33 |
12 |
Mar/16 |
18.2 |
75.0% |
13.64 |
7.50 |
6.14 |
- |
6.14 |
300 |
$ 0.0205 |
44 |
$3.60 |
13 |
Jun/16 |
23.2 |
75.0% |
17.42 |
7.50 |
9.92 |
- |
9.92 |
300 |
$ 0.0331 |
44 |
$5.82 |
14 |
Sep/16 |
29.7 |
75.0% |
22.26 |
7.50 |
14.76 |
4.4 |
10.33 |
300 |
$ 0.0344 |
44 |
$6.06 |
15 |
Dec/16 |
37.9 |
75.0% |
28.43 |
7.50 |
20.93 |
6.3 |
14.65 |
300 |
$ 0.0488 |
44 |
$8.60 |
16 |
Mar/17 |
50.7 |
75.0% |
38.01 |
10.00 |
28.01 |
8.4 |
19.60 |
300 |
$ 0.0653 |
28 |
$7.32 |
17 |
Jun/17 |
67.7 |
75.0% |
50.80 |
10.00 |
40.80 |
12.2 |
28.56 |
300 |
$ 0.0952 |
28 |
$10.66 |
18 |
Sep/17 |
90.5 |
75.0% |
67.91 |
10.00 |
57.91 |
17.4 |
40.54 |
300 |
$ 0.1351 |
28 |
$15.13 |
19 |
Dec/17 |
121.0 |
75.0% |
90.78 |
10.00 |
80.78 |
24.2 |
56.54 |
300 |
$ 0.1885 |
28 |
$21.11 |
20 |
Mar/18 |
127.2 |
75.0% |
95.40 |
12.50 |
82.90 |
24.9 |
58.03 |
300 |
$ 0.1934 |
28 |
$21.66 |
21 |
Jun/18 |
133.7 |
75.0% |
100.26 |
12.50 |
87.76 |
26.3 |
61.43 |
300 |
$ 0.2048 |
28 |
$22.93 |
22 |
Sep/18 |
140.5 |
75.0% |
105.36 |
12.50 |
92.86 |
27.9 |
65.00 |
300 |
$ 0.2167 |
28 |
$24.27 |
23 |
Dec/18 |
147.6 |
75.0% |
110.73 |
12.50 |
98.23 |
29.5 |
68.76 |
300 |
$ 0.2292 |
28 |
$25.67 |
24 |
Mar/19 |
154.6 |
75.0% |
115.91 |
15.00 |
100.91 |
30.3 |
70.64 |
300 |
$ 0.2355 |
28 |
$26.37 |
25 |
Jun/19 |
161.8 |
75.0% |
121.34 |
15.00 |
106.34 |
31.9 |
74.44 |
300 |
$ 0.2481 |
28 |
$27.79 |
26 |
Sep/19 |
169.4 |
75.0% |
127.02 |
15.00 |
112.02 |
33.6 |
78.42 |
300 |
$ 0.2614 |
28 |
$29.28 |
27 |
Dec/19 |
177.3 |
75.0% |
132.97 |
15.00 |
117.97 |
35.4 |
82.58 |
300 |
$ 0.2753 |
28 |
$30.83 |
28 |
Mar/20 |
184.7 |
75.0% |
138.50 |
17.50 |
121.00 |
36.3 |
84.70 |
300 |
$ 0.2823 |
26 |
$29.36 |
29 |
Jun/20 |
192.3 |
75.0% |
144.26 |
17.50 |
126.76 |
38.0 |
88.73 |
300 |
$ 0.2958 |
26 |
$30.76 |
30 |
Sep/20 |
200.3 |
75.0% |
150.25 |
17.50 |
132.75 |
39.8 |
92.93 |
300 |
$ 0.3098 |
26 |
$32.21 |
31 |
Dec/20 |
208.7 |
75.0% |
156.50 |
17.50 |
139.00 |
41.7 |
97.30 |
300 |
$ 0.3243 |
26 |
$33.73 |
32 |
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2,473.2 |
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