I have no idea how high the share price will go. However, I have...

I have no idea how high the share price will go. However, I have done some fairly simple NPV analysis based on Mercer's statement at the Spotlight Conference. Feel free to pick apart. My view is that any regulatory risk disappears and the risk that remains becomes execution risk...can our sales force hit the targets that have been put out there.

Given that there is US sales potential not included in this analysis, as well as other commercial applications for the product, there should be upside to the valuation.

Assumptions: Sales Margin 75%. Head office costs go up at $7m per year and then increase with sales growth from 2020. Sales growth beyond 2020 is what it was from 2020 over 2019. Anyway, here is what I get:

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5	Column 6	Column 7	Column 8
0	Revenue $m	Growth %	Net Revenue $M	Head Office Costs $m	EBIT $m	NPV $m	Discount Rate	10%
1	2014	2.6	1.95	7.00	-5.05	-5.05	Exchange Rate	0.91
2	2015	33.6	1192%	25.2	14.00	11.2	10.18182
3	2016	96	186%	72	21.00	51	42.14876
4	2017	267	178%	200.25	28.00	172.25	129.414
5	2018	385	44%	288.75	35.00	253.75	173.3147
6	2019	450	17%	337.5	42.00	295.5	183.4823
7	2020	521	16%	390.75	49.00	341.75	192.909
8	2021	603.2022	16%	452.4016667	56.73	395.670556	203.0416
9	2022	698.3741	16%	523.7805963	65.68	458.098577	213.7064
10	2023	808.562	16%	606.4215348	76.05	530.376352	224.9313
11	2024	936.1352	16%	702.101377	88.04	614.057954	236.7459
12	NPV USD	1604.826
13	NPV AUD	1763.545