Tassal shareholders will probably say that whoever wins the U.S. presidential election has got nothing to do with me.
However a Trump presidency, will cause a flight to haven currencies which are the yen and the US dollar. A lower AUDUSD as a result will benefit Tassal's exports. Tassal has noted in its FY2016 presentation that "moving forward, export market conditions appear attractive - global supply constaints, increased pricing and lower Australian dollar"
When deals with Japanese importers of salmon are done in USD, a weaker AUD will result in greater revenues in AUD terms while operating margins stay constant. This will ultimately boost EBITDA for the business.
Tassal notes also in the FY16 presentation that domestic retail market has become a lower price, low margin market. And it is a high cost market to service operationally and financially. I believe that Tassal will use recent media scrutiny to rebalance sales and place greater focus on exports, which has recently become a higher margin market due to better HOG pricing and a lower AUD.
In Fy16, Tassal's export revenue was only A$13m while domestic market revenue (retail plus wholesale) accounted for A$412m. Thus there is ample room for a shift in sales mix should there be a need.
On the other hand, a Clinton victory will see a broad based ASX200 rally by around 3%
