I want to add that the market cap of MOL might still get to $800m (10x where it is from now), but with a ship load more shares on offer (97m up to 300m ish) caps it out at $2.50 a share.
But based on current information there are major risks to discount the full value of this company.
FIRB risk - will make or break the project. Lets discount this by 50% (to be conservative). What goes with FIRB approval is elimination of funding risk.
Mo price risk - let be conservaive again and give another 10% discount
Construction risk - lets again be conservative and give another 10% discount.
$2.50 less 70% gives 75 cents. But because there is a floor in the proce of 80 cents, I'd say we are overvalued.
The value the chinese are seeing is in certainty of supply. The profit that MOL makes will be in the hand of the chinese to the extent of the percentage they own in MOL. So that profit eliminates in their eyes and reduces their cost price of Mo.
From an small investors perspective there is nothing here except unacceptable risk and delays. Look elsewhere.
There are some punters out there in the land of MOL who cannot see the wood for the trees.
You are wasting your money in MOL at this stage of the commoditites cycle.
MOL Price at posting:
91.5¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
