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Originally posted by Gaz_C
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First time HotCopperposter but long term reader. The tide is indeed out and the syrah yacht is nothing but a rust bucket underneath after that disastrous Qtrly and I am now officially classified as disillusioned 'former' Syrah true believer. I've got a fair bit invested at the low $3 average and have held since the Tolga days. Below is a short summary of my take on Syrah’s share price from here and then more detail behind my pessimism for those who care to read: -Next 6 mths (longer?) $1-2: Syr stated positive cash flow in Q2, even if that's correct it means the sp is atthe mercy of shorters and traders until end of July (release of June Qtrreport). Ever see a nature doco where an orca captures and torments a stillalive seal? Well think of syr sp as the seal and the orca as shorters/traders.My take on the qtrlyand company direction:Graphite demand subject to market conditions ”. That statement was hardly a ringing endorsement of solid demand and their presentations are loaded with futuristic statements of reduced Chinese output, becoming a net importer etc. That doesn’t appear to be happening and we may have to wait a long time for demand to match the hype. Didn’t they previously state almost all 2019 production (@250-300kt!) was pretty much already locked up with existing customers? Cash Seriously WTF…where the hell did $550 per tonnecome from?? That's >20% worse than syr ever disclosed to the market and light years away from the sub $300/t they promised as production ramped up. And now that great chart in the qtrly showing they really need to run the plant at 250ktpa to bring the unit cost down to a reasonable level and that relies on the same shaky demand i.e. “subject to market conditions”. G price BAM MGMT In short terrible performance! They really really need to pull their finger out and start focussing on reducing cash outflow, Q1 2019 forecast US$20M and US$10-15M for 2019 sustaining capital. That’s US$30-35M from a cash balance of US$77M already spoken for. Hello cap raise at potentially current low prices! Do we really need to be burning cash for capex like cell 2 of the TSF right now?? I’d like to hear them start talking about how they plan to reduce cost per tonne besides just hoping for demand to lower the unit cost. Overall, I dread every market release by thismob and they have no more potentially positive announcements left in thetank (e.g. mining agreement finalised, commercial production achieved). I was amazed at how low the share price has been and thought it was just shorter manipulation, in hindsight the shorters have seen the environment and developments here perfectly so well played to them! I will be happy to be proven wrong about anything I’ve written here, theway the company is currently going getting back money I invested will be agood outcome!!
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